Earth Science Week Classroom Activities

Simulating a Hurricane to Assess Hazard Risk

Activity Source:

Earth Science Information Partners.

Based on materials from The Concord Consortium at https://learn.concord.org/earth. Supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant No. DRL-1812362.

Developed by the ESIP Education Committee which promotes the use of Earth science data in education and offers 15 minute “Out2Lunch” webinars (https://wiki.esipfed.org/Education/Out2Lunch) highlighting Earth Science tools and resources for educators.

Geoscientists use simulations based on computational models to help them predict the risks and impacts of natural hazards to people and infrastructure. Hurricanes are a major natural hazard and can have devastating effects. Simulations can help us better understand how hurricanes form and move. In this activity, you will change factors such as temperature and the position of high- and low-pressure systems to investigate their effects on hurricane trajectory and intensity.

MATERIALS

  • Computer with Internet access

PROCEDURE

  1. Read an article and watch a video about how hurricanes form at ​https://scijinks.gov/hurricane/.
  2. Launch the Hurricane Explorer simulation at https://hurricane.concord.org/. Turn on the Hurricane Image and click Start. Take a screenshot after each time you change conditions and run the simulation. Paste these into a document to keep a record of your changes and their effects.
  3. Observe the storm’s path and how its category changes over time once it becomes a hurricane.
  4. Switch the Base Map to a Street Map. Where does the hurricane make landfall? Zoom in on Jacksonville, Florida.
  5. Turn the Storm Surge Overlay on and off to see what structures and roads are affected. What parts of Jacksonville experience the highest storm surge?
  6. Sea surface temperature changes as seasons change. Click Reload and change the season to Winter. How does the path of the storm compare to its path to Fall? Investigate Spring and Summer. In which season did the storm fizzle out just after leaving Africa?
  7. Reload the simulation then click and drag the low- and high- pressure systems (L s and H s) to new positions. Notice how wind direction (arrows) and speed change with different positions of the Ls and Hs. Run the simulation several times, moving the Ls and Hs to new locations to investigate how the path of the storm changes.
  8. On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane. It caused approximately $125 billion in damage, affecting over 200,000 homes. Learn more about Hurricane Harvey.
  9. Reload the simulation and set the Base Map to Street and the Overlay to Storm Surge. Change other factors until you simulate the conditions leading to a hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas.
  10. Switch to the Precipitation Overlay to examine changes in rainfall along the storm’s path.
  11. Consider storm surge effects. If a storm were to take the path you created, what cities and structures would be most at risk?

ANALYSIS

  1. Summarize what factors cause a hurricane to strengthen and use evidence from the simulation to support your summary.
  2. Read the article, “A Force of Nature: Hurricanes in a Changing Climate,” https://go.nasa.gov/44RkAIz. Simulations are innovative technologies that enable geoscientists to model current and future conditions affecting the trajectory and intensity of hurricanes. What do global climate models predict about hurricanes in the future?

NGSS CONNECTIONS

SEP : Developing and Using Models

DCI : ESS3.B: Natural Hazards; ESS3.D: Global Climate Change

CCC : Patterns; Cause and Effect

SDG CONNECTIONS

11 : Sustainable Cities and Communities

13 : Climate Action